High demand for labor
Social Work Conference Coming Soon. It aims to initiate future social work from a human rights perspective. Seven working groups are preparing for the conference with practitioners.
The report of the working group 'Social Work and Labor' argues in favor of a society in which there is a lot of work to be done. She chooses a structural approach, not to pursue individual unemployment. That choice is correct. Similarly, Article 23 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights states that everyone has the right to work.
More
active
Moreover, social work and the welfare state as a whole exist only through the grace of labor. During World War II, when the British lawyer Beverage designed a building for this welfare state, he laid down some preconditions.
Everyone will contribute to the welfare state according to their ability, especially through income tax and VAT. Everyone will be cared for according to their needs (not because they know or can afford a room). And society can only maintain this welfare state with full employment. The active population in the labor market should be as active as possible. Only then can an economic balance be struck between who contributes to the welfare state and who uses it.
Less
skilled workers than needed
But are the prospects really that rosy? On the same day that SD Word’s research was published in the Flemish newspaper, the British newspaper The Guardian reported an investigation into the results of a new wave of technological innovation in the labor market. You are not happy with the results and predictions.
In the UK, about one-third of what is now paid in wages and about 44% of jobs are at risk from automation. Less skilled workers, in particular, are becoming unemployed. Practical work can then become an old dream of the past.
Expanding
the pay gap
A week later, the same newspaper published a report on the
sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davis. Jobs will be lost due to
automation and robotization. And the pay gap between men and women will widen
rapidly.
Maybe the future doesn't look so bright. Therefore, it is useful to consider the impact of automation and robotization on the labor market. How do we make citizens and the welfare state flexible so that we have a more comprehensive labor market instead of less participation?
Robotic
conductors and surgeons
If you keep up with all the articles about robotization and technological innovation for a while, it soon becomes a complete (digital) pile. Apparently a lot is happening.
Many of these messages still have a futuristic and legendary character, such as Robot Pastor (BlessU-2), Robot Agent in Dubai, Robot Travel Guide in Xavier, Robot Conductor, Robot Politician. Who addresses the UN (Sofia), Robot Athlete (Kangaroo), Robot Journalist (Heliograph), Robot Receptionist or Robot Berkeley
Other examples are of lesser future. The self-driving car has already traveled several miles to the counter in California and could break down quickly. Robotic surgery is a reality, even in Flemish hospitals. In the Netherlands, health insurance companies make full use of robot judges and thus privatize the rule of law. If computers can play chess, they can also make decisions according to the driving force behind it. And care robot Zora is already helping Flemish's residential care and rehabilitation centers.
Upcoming
automation
Robotization is just a small part of the technological innovation cake. It is a hidden algorithm and machine learning that will have a huge impact. Mathematical machine learning systems that process a lot of input into a reusable process that no one yet understands.
The requests are numerous. At various banks, investment advice is increasingly being compiled through algorithms. Algorithms learn to distinguish between real and false art. They also monitor the screen for the behavior and standards recommended by general practitioners. Radiologists should also be careful: Algorithms are able to detect cancer faster on scans.
The translation software is amazingly good thanks to the algorithm (try the pilot app). The Dutch company is developing unformed technology that predicts whether a young person will complete their school career. That way, action can be taken before school dropouts occur.
Watson, IBM's artificial intelligence platform, looked at all client information from VDAB's past. This information helps guide VDAB coaches through the personal recommendations of young job seekers. And everything you see on facebook, Trip Advisor or bol.com is controlled by algorithms. No one comes around now.
Since machines have taken over the physical power of humans since the late 19th century, they have taken over our ability to think since the beginning of the 21st century.
Concerned
about innovation
The question of the impact of technological innovation on the quality and quantity of work has already been asked. Leading are the Luddites who destroyed looms during the Industrial Revolution for fear of losing their jobs. We still owe the word sabotage to those who then threw their clogs (in French: 'sabot') into machines.
With the rise of the Internet and related technologies, new concerns have arisen. Will we just send emails to each other and postmen become vague memories of the past? Will word processors make all secretarial staff useless? At this point in our assessment of the social effects of digitalization, we can only conclude that there was still very little information about labor market outcomes.
Add or
change
Since then, two studies have led to a debate about the consequences of robotization on the labor market. The first is the work of Eric Brianjolfson and his colleague Andrew McAfee.
Bryn Jolson, E. and McAfee, A. (2011), Race Against the Machine: How the Digital Revolution Accelerates Innovation, Increases Productivity, and Transforms Employment and the Economy Irrevocably. Lexington, Digital Frontier Press; Bryn Jolson, E. and McAfee, A. (2014), The Second Mechanical Era: Work, Development, and Prosperity in the Age of Stunning Technologies, New York, Norton; MacAfee, A. and Bryn Jolson, E. (2017), Machine, Platform, Crowd: Using the Digital Revolution, New York, WW Norton & Co.
In short: in the first mechanized age, in the late 19th century, technology was primarily an increase in human labor. It has made unnecessary heavy labor unnecessary and increased our consumption levels.
In the current second age of robots and algorithms, technology is essentially an alternative to human labor. Not only dangerous, boring or dirty work but also expensive work. The labor market is shrinking and structurally fewer people are needed. Not in a few years, but in a few decades. But today is the day to start thinking about the consequences.
How many
jobs will be lost
The second recurring benchmark in this debate is the work of Carl Free and Michael Osborne. Free, CB, and Osborne, MA (2013), 'The Future of Employment: How Sensitive Are Jobs to Computerization?', Technical Prediction and Social Change, 114, 254-280. They are more solid than Bryn Jolson and McAfee. He estimates that about 700 jobs will be lost as a result of technological innovation.
They know that in a relatively short period of time, almost half of the jobs can be created through technology. Low-skilled and low-paying jobs are particularly at risk. More recent studies and rulings generally return to the debate on these two criteria, and arrive at similar conclusions. In late 2015, the Bank of England also released a study stating that 15 million jobs, or almost half of the labor market, could be lost due to new technology.
